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感谢思维导图作者
May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽
#小编和你唠唠嗑
1. 关于三连（在看，转发，留言）
第一：因公众号推送规则改变，每位老铁收到的推文，已不按照发出时间的先后顺序。如果您不星标公众号或者没有任何留言，点击在看之类的互动，您可能会收不到推送或者收到推送已经是几个小时以后啦！
第二：在看越多，留言越多，转发越多，证明大家对翻译组文章质量的认可，内容虽然都是免费提供给大家，但是简单的点一下在看等，却能给翻译组成员带来无尽的动力，有了动力才能更好的为大家提供更好的翻译作品，我们也能够找到更好的人，这是一个正向的循环。
2.关于点击显示
其实是老功能了，几年前我们就做过这个功能了，后来由于种种原因停用，昨天再次采用了点击显示 的方式，也是希望对大家的学习有所帮助，确实在后台以及留言区收获了一致好评，当然小编也是有所顾虑的，原因有二：第一：众口难调，有些小伙伴觉得原来的方式好，因为复制粘贴方便；第二:点击显示与全文显示相比，会让小编多花三分之一的编辑时间，所以也希望大家真的能够多多支持我们，如果觉得文章对您确实有帮助或者有过帮助，那么请您动动手指，再次感谢。
听力|精读|翻译|词组
Coming into its own
大行其是
英文部分选自经济学人20210226期财经版块
Carbon trading (1)
碳排放交易
Coming into its own
大行其是
The price of carbon in the world’s biggest, most liquid market is soaring. Investors are starting to pay attention
全球最大、流动性最强的碳市场交易价格飙升，投资者们逐渐开始关注。
As financial marketbecome cheerier about the pace of vaccinations and the chances of a speedy economic recovery, the prices of stocks, commodities and all sorts of assetsare rising. So too are carbon prices in Europe, home to the world’s largest emissions-trading system. Prices have surged by 60% since November; on February 12th they hit a record high of nearly €40 ($49) per tonne of carbon-dioxide equivalent (see chart).
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随着金融市场对疫苗接种的进度和经济向好持乐观态度，股票、大宗商品以及各种资产的价格都在稳步上涨。欧洲作为世界上最大的排放交易体系的所在地，碳价也在不断上涨。自2020年11月以来，碳价增幅为60%。2021年2月12日，碳价创历史新高，近40欧元（49美元）/吨二氧化碳。
Last year the value of global carbon marketshit a record €229bn, a five-fold increase from 2017. The eu’s emissions-trading system (ETS) accounts for nearly nine-tenths of both that value and that growth (China’s is just starting up; see next article). In 2020 around €1bn-worth of emissions allowances changed hands a day, as well as lots of options and futures contracts. There are now clear signs that the market is joining the financial mainstream, with hundreds of investment firms trading in it.
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去年，全球碳排放市场的价格突破历史记录，飙升至2290亿欧元，是2017年的5倍。欧盟的排放交易体系（ETS）占全球排放量和排放量增长的近90%（而中国的排放交易体系才刚刚起步）。2020年每天大约有10亿欧元的排放配额交易量，还有大量的期权和期货交易。现在已有迹象表明，有数百家投资公司正参与着碳排放交易，表明碳排放交易正在成为金融市场的主流。
For a long time after it was launched in 2005, the ETSbarely functioned; a glut of allowances (which give the holder the right to emit an amount of greenhouse gases) kept prices close to zero. But after the European Commission sucked out excess permits in 2019, the market began to thrive.
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ETS机制于2005年启动后，此后很长一段时间里，该机制几乎没有发挥作用。过剩的配额（允许持有者有权排放一定数量的温室气体）使得排放权的价格一直在零点徘徊。但在欧盟委员会于2019年出台了控制碳排放配额总量后，交易市场逐渐繁荣。
It is an odd market. The commission auctions allowances nearly every day; it caps the overall supply of permits based on the EU’s politically determined emissions targets. Demand, meanwhile, comes from three types of participant. Power and heating utilities, such as Germany’s rwe and France’s Engie, have the most appetite. They buy allowances to cover the emissions from current projects or to hedge against future price increases. Next come industrial firms, such as ArcelorMittal, a steelmaker. Most of these receive free permits, so that the ETSdoes not encourage producers to move abroad.
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这是一个奇怪的市场，欧委会几乎每天都在拍卖配额。欧委会根据欧盟的政治目标，来确定排放量，最终来限制碳排放P的总供应量。该碳排放的需求主要源自于三类型参与者。第一类，电力和供暖设施的公司，如德国的RWE和法国的Engie，所需的碳排放额最高。通过购买碳排放配额，它们可合理排放在手项目的二氧化碳，或对冲未来碳价的上涨。第二类，工业企业，比如钢铁制造商ArcelorMittal。由于大多数工业企业获得的是免费配额，因此ETS不鼓励生产商迁移至欧盟以外的区域。
The third, and growing, source of demand is financial firms, including banks, such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and hedge funds, such as Lansdowne Partners and Northlander Advisors. These are not required to hold allowances; instead they hope to profit, either by trading on behalf of utilities or by speculating in the futures or options market.
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第三类，金融企业，包括高盛和摩根斯坦利等银行，以及兰斯唐恩对冲基金（ Lansdowne Partners 欧洲最大的股票对冲基金）和 Northlander Advisors（欧洲能源期货和期权对冲基金）等对冲基金，他们的需求不断增加。没有硬性规定要求金融企业持有配额，他们是期望通过代表公用事业单位进行交易，或者在期货或期权市场进行投机来获取利润。
The recent spike in prices reflects both supply and demand. A shift to a new platform delayed some auctions in January, meaning fewer allowances were sold. And on December 11th eu leaders agreed to speed up cuts to emissions, bringing them down by 55% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, rather than by 40%. That signalled a lower emissions cap, meaning eventually fewer permits and a higher price.
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最近的这次价格飙升，是由于供给和需求两侧都发生了变化。由于去年1月切换了新平台，导致一些拍卖延期，可出售的配额减少。同时在12月11日，欧盟领导同意加速减排，2030年的碳排放水平与1990年相比将降低55%，而此前的目标是减少40%。排放上限将会降低，最终配额会减少，价格会上涨。
The expectation of higher carbon prices may have prompted industrial firms to start hedging their emissions early this year. That added to demand for allowances—as did unusually cold weather, which boosted the demand for heating (the ETSdoes not cover boilers in homes, but it includes large ones, such as those that heat many buildings). Speculators may have accelerated the price rise, by buoying futures prices. Around 230 investment funds hold futures linked to allowances, up from 140 in 2019. They account for only about 5% of the futures market, but it is a growing, bullish share. Long positions, or betsthat the price will rise, have doubled since November. Aje Singh Rihel of Refinitiv, a research firm, notes that this measure closely correlates with recent price changes.
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由于碳价预期会上涨，工业企业可能会更早对冲今年的排放额度，这会进一步增加对配额的需求。今年异常寒冷的天气增加了对供暖的需求，从而提高碳排放额度（ETS不包括家用锅炉，但包括大型锅炉，比如为许多大楼供暖的锅炉)。投机者可能通过抬高期货的价格进一步加速提价。目前大概有230家投资基金持有与碳排放配额相关的期货，高于2019年的140只。他们只占了期货市场5%的份额，但是长势喜人。自从去年11月以来，多头头寸（即押注价格将上涨的头寸）已经翻了一番。研究公司Refinitiv的阿杰·辛格·瑞赫（Aje Singh Rihel）指出，这一指标与最近的价格变化密切相关。
One reason for investors’ enthusiasm is that carbon seems like a one-way bet. Many analysts expect that the eu’s 55% target will require the number of allowances to fall and prices to rise, perhaps towards €80 per tonne. That could be good news for investors. When in 2018 it became clear the commission was going to intervene to limit supply, allowances became the best-performing commodity of the year.
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令投资者趋之若鹜的原因之一是碳价好比单向赌注。许多分析师预期欧盟为实现55%的减排目标将会减少碳排放配额，从而导致碳价上涨，可能达到80欧元每吨。这对投资者们来说是利好消息。2018年，当欧委会明确表示要进行干预以限制碳供应时，碳排放额度成为当年年度最佳大宗商品。
Buy and hold is not the only strategy. Casey Dwyer of Andurand Capital notes that carbon prices are largely uncorrelated with those of other assets, so some investors hold them to diversify their portfolios. They could also be used to hedge against inflation: a higher carbon price is generally accompanied by higher consumer prices.
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买入并持有并非唯一策略。安杜兰资本（Andurand Capital）的凯西·德怀尔（Casey Dwyer）指出，碳价与其他资产的价格基本不相关，因此一些投资者们持有它们是为了分散投资组合。碳价也可以用作抵御通涨：碳价越高，通常消费价格也就越高。
文章原创于外盘期货官网：http://www.haoyaya.com.cn/
